000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.9N 107.2W OR ABOUT 120 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF CABO CORRIENTES AND 280 NM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS 
MEXICO MOVING NW 5 KT AT 0300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS TO 75 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 
MB. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE CENTER AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...14N90W 
10N105W 9N135W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 13N94W.

...DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS...EXCEPT FOR TROPICAL STORM KIKO...VERY 
LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC W OF 100W. 
A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF 100W 
ALONG 12N TO 14N. MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING WSW FROM THE COAST OF 
GUATEMALA TO NEAR 9N118W. WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS ARE 10 TO 15 KT BUT LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES N 
OF THE AREA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200 NM OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING SWELLS AND 
AMPLIFYING SEA HEIGHTS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES. AS A RESULT SEAS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ARE 10 FT OR GREATER. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS 
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN PLACE N OF THE AREA AND KIKO MOVES PAST 
SOUTHERN BAJA THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE N OF 20N 
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REACHING A PEAK OF ABOUT 16-17 FT SUN 
AFTERNOON NEAR 30N123W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SUN NIGHT 
THROUGH TUE EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF KIKO. THE FIRST 
MAJOR WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS 
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES INTO 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND 
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE DETERMINING FACTOR WILL BE 
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 
THE SAME TIME SE OF TEHUANTEPEC. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT ANOTHER 
DAY OR SO BEFORE ISSUING A GALE WARNING FOR THAT AREA.

$$
LL