000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.5N 106.9W OR ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NW 5 KT AT 2100 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 991 MB. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...14N90W 
10N105W 9N130W 6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N94W.

...DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS...EXCEPT FOR TROPICAL STORM KIKO...VERY 
LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC W OF 100W. 
A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF 100W 
ALONG 12N TO 14N. QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING 
WSW FROM THE COAST OF GUATEMALA TO NEAR 9N118W. WINDS WITHIN 60 
NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE 10 TO 15 KT BUT LESS THAN 10 KT 
ELSEWHERE. A 1029 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH A 
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCING NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200 NM OF EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THESE 
WINDS ARE GENERATING SWELLS AND AMPLIFYING SEA HEIGHTS ALREADY 
IN PLACE FROM MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. AS A RESULT SEAS OVER A 
LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE 10 FT OR GREATER. WW3 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 
THE AREA AND KIKO MOVES PAST SOUTHERN BAJA THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE N OF 20N OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REACHING A 
PEAK OF ABOUT 16-17 FT SUN AFTERNOON NEAR 30N123W. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL DECREASE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY OF KIKO. THE FIRST MAJOR WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS 
STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. 
THE DETERMINING FACTOR WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF 
ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT THE SAME TIME SE OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE 
ISSUING A GALE WARNING FOR THAT AREA.

$$
LL