000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.1N 106.1W OR ABOUT 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NW 4 KT AT 1500 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 
MB. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO 
CORRIENTES. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO 
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 21N107W TO 17N106W.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 9N13N94W 7N135W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N86W 
AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N91W TO 15N96W.

...DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS...EXCEPT FOR TROPICAL STORM KIKO...VERY 
LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC W OF 100W. A 
LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF 100W ALONG 12N 
TO 13N. QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING WSW FROM THE 
COAST OF GUATEMALA TO NEAR 9N118W. WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS ARE 10 TO 15 KT BUT LESS THAN 10 KT ELSEWHERE. 1027 MB 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200
NM OF EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING SWELLS 
AND AMPLIFYING SEA HEIGHTS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES. AS A RESULT SEAS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ARE 10 FT OR GREATER. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AS HIGH PRES 
REMAINS IN PLACE N OF THE AREA AND KIKO MOVES PAST SOUTHERN BAJA THE 
SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE N OF 20N OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
REACHING A PEAK OF ABOUT 16-17 FT SUN AFTERNOON NEAR 30N123W. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL DECREASE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY OF KIKO. THE FIRST MAJOR WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STRONG HIGH 
PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED...AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE DETERMINING FACTOR
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT
THE SAME TIME SE OF TEHUANTEPEC. WE WILL NEED TO WAIT ANOTHER DAY OR 
SO BEFORE ISSUING A GALE WARNING FOR THAT AREA.

$$
MUNDELL