000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.5N 105.5W OR ABOUT 113 NM...210 
KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MILES... 
755 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO....AT 19/2100 UTC. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT WITH 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. KIKO IS MOVING 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS 
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF KIKO. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN 
MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS 
OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...15N92W 
10N105W 9N120W 7N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG 
THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER 
ATMOSPHERE FROM 15N TO 32N W OF 110W THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 21N130W. MODERATE 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND DOMINATES THE PACIFIC W OF 115W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER MEXICO. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA.   

AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KIKO IS HAS 
WEAKENED SOME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. 
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR 
THE NEXT 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. 
SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF 
THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ  
OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 10N W OF 
125W. MODERATE SW WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF KIKO MAINLY FROM 
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W NWD INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD... A TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT MAY 
DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A MODERATE TO STRONG 
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE AVERAGE DATE FOR THE FIRST TEHUANTEPEC 
EVENT IS OCTOBER THE 21ST. 

$$
LL