000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.1N 105.1W OR ABOUT 120 NM...230 
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 445 MILES... 
815 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO....AT 19/1500 UTC. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT WITH 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. KIKO IS MOVING 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS 
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF KIKO. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN 
MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS 
OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG 8N78W 13N88W 15N96W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 10N105W 9N125W 
8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 140 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 9N125W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1009 
MB LOW NEAR 9N127W EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.  

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER 
ATMOSPHERE FROM 15N TO 30N W OF 110W THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 21N130W. MODERATE 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND DOMINATES THE PACIFIC W OF 115W. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH 
IS MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING 
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA.   

AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO 
IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE 
FEATURE THAT MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST 
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD 
STEER KIKO SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD 
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...WHICH 
SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. 
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
COVERING THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 10N W OF 125W. WINDS HAVE 
INCREASE OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ TO NWLY 20 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH 
ONSHORE WINDS. STRONG SW WINDS ARE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF KIKO 
MAINLY FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W NWD INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED 
THESE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...A TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT MAY 
DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A MODERATE TO STRONG 
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE AVERAGE DATE FOR THE FIRST TEHUANTEPEC 
EVENT IS OCTOBER THE 21ST. 

$$
GR