000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.7N 104.6W OR ABOUT 140 NM...260 KM 
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 185 NM...340 KM WEST 
SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 19/0300 UTC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SUGGESTS THE CENTER OF KIKO MAY BE REFORMING FURTHER WEST. 
NONETHELESS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 
NM IN THE W QUADRANT MAINLY WITHIN A SPIRAL BAND OF INCREASING 
CURVATURE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE W AND 90 NM IN E SEMICIRCLES. THE LATEST 
CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATES THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR 
WHICH HAS THUS FAR LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS RELAXING. AS SUCH 
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND KIKO COULD BECOME A 
HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST. 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE 
AXIS...GENERALLY WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 11N86W 15N93W 
12N100W 9N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
60-90 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS ALONG 20N EXTENDS FROM 
140W EWD TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND COVERING THE STATE OF 
JALISCO. MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS 
NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. 
THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS BEGINNING TO 
MOVE OUT OF THIS SHEARING FLOW. UPPER DRY AIR RESULTING IN 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. AN 
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO. A CUT-OFF LOW IS WEST 
OF THE AREA NEAR 28N143W AND WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE
AT 10-15 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ. CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MOST 
CONCENTRATED WEST OF CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A 
STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. THE RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND NE 
TRADES TO 20 KT FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 120W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT 
PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. SWLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FOUND SOUTH 
OF KIKO MAINLY FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 

$$
COBB