000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.8N 103.7W OR ABOUT 135 NM...255 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 NM...245 KM
SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 18/2100 UTC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTH AT 3 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
CENTER. WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM IN W QUADRANT. THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATES 
THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS THUS FAR LIMITED 
STRENGTHENING IS BEGINNING TO RELAX. AS SUCH FURTHER 
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE 
WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT PARALLELS THE MEXICAN COAST. TROPICAL 
STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 11N86W 15N93W 
12N100W 9N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS ALONG 20N EXTENDS FROM 
140W EWD TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND COVERING THE STATE OF 
JALISCO. MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS 
NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. 
THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS BEGINNING TO 
MOVE OUT OF THIS SHEARING FLOW. UPPER DRY AIR RESULTING IN 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. AN 
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO. A CUT-OFF LOW IS WEST 
OF THE AREA NEAR 26N145W AND WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE 
NE. 

AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ. CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MOST 
CONCENTRATED WEST OF CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A 1024 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N134W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERING 
THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NW 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND NE TRADES TO 20 KT 
FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 120W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED 
THESE WINDS. SWLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF KIKO MAINLY 
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 

$$
COBB