000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS NEAR 16.4N 103.4W OR ABOUT 165 NM... 
305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130 
NM...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 18/1500 UTC. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER. OTHER STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM W QUADRANT. KIKO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE EASTERLY 
SHEAR WHICH HAS THUS FAR LIMITED STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER... 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES...ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. WATCHES AND 
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THE CURRENTLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS 
THE CENTER OF KIKO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF FROM 11N TO 13N...WITH NO 
ORGANIZATION.   

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N80W 13N90W 10N104W 
9N125W AND 10N140W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 3N78W TO 7N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 11N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W-135W.  

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 19N EXTENDING 
EWD TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND COVERING THE STATE OF JALISCO. 
MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED S 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. THIS FLOW 
IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC. TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS 
SHEARING FLOW. UPPER DRY AIR RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO. A CUT-OFF LOW IS WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 
26N145W. 

AT THE SURFACE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ. CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MOST 
CONCENTRATED WEST OF CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A 1024 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 29N132 WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. THE RIDGE 
IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND NE 
TRADES TO 20 KT FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 130W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT 
PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT. SWLY WINDS TO 
20 KT ARE FOUND SOUTH OF KIKO MAINLY FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W. 

$$
GR