000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180402
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS NEAR 14.8 104.7W OR ABOUT 570 NM SSE OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 18/0300 UTC. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
CONTINUES TO REMAIN EXPOSED ALONG THE E EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER 
OF INTENSE TSTMS...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N105W 
17N109W AND ALSO E OF CENTER WITHIN 60 NM 15N103W. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N82W 8N100W 12N110W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N85W 11N89W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE LINE 9N128W 12N136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N99W 20N112W 
INTO A WEAK UPPER CYCLONE AT 10N118W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE 
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 26N136W FROM THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE 
OVER MEXICO AT 21N104W.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM KIKO FANS OUT OVER THE AREA 
FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS 
ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE...BUT 
CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N108W 
23N103W...BUT SOME OF TS KIKO DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO 
SPREAD S IN NE UPPER FLOW, A LITTLE UPPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED S 
OVER THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 122W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 127W AND 140W REMAINS IN ROUGHLY 
THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 122W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN.... 
CURRENTLY NEAR 19N82W. UPPER NLY WINDS W OF THIS CYCLONE COMBINE 
WITH THE NLY WINDS E OF THE MEXICAN ANTICYCLONE...AND CONTINUE 
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE TROPICAL PAC E OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE LINE 12N94W 15N103W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION IS SPREADING S OVER THE AREA NE OF LINE FROM 6N110W 
TO 2N80W. 

$$
NELSON