000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS NEAR 14.6N 105.4W OR ABOUT 560 NM SSE OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 17/2100 UTC. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
CONTINUES TO REMAIN EXPOSED ALONG THE E EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER 
OF INTENSE TSTMS...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N104W 
13N110W. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 8N82W 8N110W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N83W 7N92W 
AND LINE 9N128W 11N135W.  

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N110W 24N110W 
19N112W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N130W FROM THE FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO AT 21N104W.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM KIKO FANS OUT OVER THE AREA 
FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS 
ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE...BUT 
CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N108W 
23N103W. A LITTLE UPPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED S OVER THE AREA N OF 
28N BETWEEN 107W AND 125W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 128W AND 142W REMAINS IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 120W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN.... 
CURRENTLY NEAR 18N81W. UPPER NLY WINDS W OF THIS CYCLONE COMBINE 
WITH THE NLY WINDS E OF THE MEXICAN ANTICYCLONE...AND CONTINUE 
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE TROPICAL PAC E OF 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE LINE 12N93W 16N104W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION IS SPREADING S OVER THE AREA NE OF LINE FROM 6N110W 
TO 3N78W. 

$$
NELSON