000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.9W OR ABOUT 290 
NM...545 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 17/1500 UTC. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AND KIKO IS MOVING TO WARD THE 
NORTHEAST OR 045 DEG AT 4 KT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE 
SYSTEM IS ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST 
AXIS. DESPITE THIS ORIENTATION DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN 
FIRED UP NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM GENERALLY WITHIN 45 NM OF AN 
ARC THROUGH 14.5N105.5W 14N107W 14N109W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...8N78W 
13N90W 16N96W 10N105W 10N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W 
AND 104W AND EXTENDING NWD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 3N TO 7N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES 
MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A RATHER FLAT ZONAL PATTERN. RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS THROUGH 30N138W 25N130W TO THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N120W 
THEN ENEWD THROUGH 21N110W AND ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
EXTREME WRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR WAS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE 
AXIS. A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS INDICATED ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM W TEXAS THROUGH 
30N103W TO A BASE NEAR 25N116W. A CUT-OFF LOW W OF THE AREA NEAR 
25N148W HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH AND IS NOW MOVING 
WWD 5-10 KT AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 115W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING MID 
AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. 
IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS 
SHEARING FLOW WHICH WAS CURRENTLY LIMITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER LARGE-SCALE NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS FORECAST THE 
SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF KIKO. 
 
AT THE SURFACE A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 29N144W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ AND W OF 115W. 

$$
COBB