000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS MOVING ENE AT 2 KNOTS NEAR 14.2N 107.3W 
OR ABOUT 540 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
17/0900 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE 
LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES NEAR THE NE EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER 
OF INTENSE TSTMS...WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N108.3W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...7N77W 9N105W 
9N140W. WITHIN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...OTHER CONVECTION...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE POINT 13.5N108.3W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST 
FROM 87W TO 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 125W. NO CLOUDS 
OR WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. THIS REGION 
CONTAINS THE TROPICAL STORM KIKO. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 
THIS AREA SOUTH OF 20N.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 118W.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE 
TROPICAL STORM WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION EXTEND OUT 
FROM THE CONTINENT 400 TO 500 NM SOUTH OF 20N.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ARE BETWEEN 15N AND 25N.

$$
LL