000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO IS MEANDERING NEAR 14.0N 107.5W OR 
ABOUT 540 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
17/0300 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO REMAIN EXPOSED ALONG THE E 
EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE LINE 14N111W 12N109W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 11N86W 16N100W 9N125W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 9N86W 14N93W 13N97W 18N103W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 9N128W 7N137W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N113W 21N118W 
23N130W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 25N143W. THIS TROUGH IS DIGGING 
SE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
STATIONARY NEAR 21N107W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 
17N119W. A NEW ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPED NEAR 17N128W AND IS MOVING 
W WITH TIME.

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FANS OUT OVER THE 
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. SOME OF THIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT 
CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 20N112W 
23N102W. A LITTLE UPPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED S OVER THE AREA N OF 
29N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. ITCZ CONVECTION FLARED BETWEEN 124W 
AND 138W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING IN ROUGHLY THE SAME 
AREA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 120W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.... 
CURRENTLY NEAR 15N78W.  UPPER NLY WINDS W OF THE CYCLONE COMBINE 
WITH THE NLY WINDS FROM THE MEXICAN ANTICYCLONE...AND CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
TROPICAL PAC E OF 105W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION... 
DESCRIBED WITH ITCZ ABOVE...IS SPREADING S OVER THE AREA NE OF 
LINE FROM 7N110W TO EQUATOR AT 85W. 

$$
NELSON