000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 14.1N 108.1W 
OR ABOUT 530 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
16/2100 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE E OF A LARGE BAND OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE 
SW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 11N86W 16N101W 8N111W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 6N81W 12N90W 13N101W 17N103W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM 11N116W AND 9N125W...AND WITHIN 30 NM LINE 
8N132W 7N137W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N113W 22N119W 
22N131W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 15N140W. THIS TROUGH IS DIGGING 
SE INTO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
STATIONARY NEAR 20N106W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 
18N131W. A NEW ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING NEAR 19N126W AND IS 
EXPECTED TO SEPARATE FROM THE PARENT RIDGE TONIGHT.   

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDS FROM 11N TO 
20N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE 
IN THE RIDGE BUT CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 20N113W 24N103W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN 
DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 120W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
UPPER NLY WINDS W OF THE CYCLONE COMBINE WITH THE NLY WINDS FROM 
THE MEXICAN ANTICYCLONE...AND CONTINUE S ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL PAC E OF 101W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION...DESCRIBED WITH ITCZ ABOVE...IS 
SPREADING S OVER THE AREA NE OF LINE FROM 10N110W TO EQUATOR AT 
85W. 

$$
NELSON