000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM KIKO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY 
NEAR 12.4N 108.5W OR ABOUT 400 NM...695 KM SW OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO AT 16/1500 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH TWO AREAS OF  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED WELL AWAY FROM 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LARGER AREA IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF 
THE CENTER WITHIN 45-60 NM OF AN ARC THROUGH 17.5N109W 15N111W 
AND THE OTHER SMALLER AREA IS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER 
WITHIN 60-75 NM OF 13.5N110W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...11N86W  
15N99W 9N108W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 12.7N100.5W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 
103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120-150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
RATHER FLAT ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE OVERALL WITH A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N114W 28N120W THEN CONTINUING 
AS A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 27N130W 28N140W TO A CUT OFF LOW W OF 
THE AREA NEAR 25N146W. TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGHING EAST-WEST 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM W MEXICO THROUGH 19N120W 19N25W THEN 
NWWD TO NEAR 27N138W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED 
OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AND ELSEWHERE N OF 
10N W OF 130W. TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA DEFINED BY EASTERLY SHEARING. THIS 
SHEARING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N152W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERING 
THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 115W. 

E OF 100W...
RIDGE AXIS NOTED ABOVE EXTENDS EWD ACROSS MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC E OF 100W. THIS FLOW WAS ADVECTING 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC. 

$$
COBB