000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN E IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 14.4N 
108.9W OR ABOUT 490 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...AT 16/0900 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT. THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPOSED WITH TWO AREAS OF NEARBY 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. THE LARGER ONE IS 
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF 13.5N110.5W AND 
THE SMALLER IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF 
16.5N110.7W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...7N77W 9N105W 
9N140W. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH 23N140W 
24N120W TO THE NORTH PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE AREA 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 
MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  THE AREA FROM 11N TO 20N EAST OF 125W IS MOIST IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND INCLUDES THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
ALSO THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 105W IS MOIST IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THESE TWO MOIST AREAS HAVE MULTI LEVEL 
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH A FEW SMALL AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 120W.  ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AREA THERE IS A BROAD TROUGH.

LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF A LINE 32N120W 
20N135W 15N135W TO 115W.

$$
LL