000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN E IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 14.7N 
109.0W OR ABOUT 490 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...AT 16/0300 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
REMAINS NEAR 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPOSED TO THE E OF A LARGE 
BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
LINE 14N110W 18N109W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 12N87W 16N101W 
14N109W 11N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N83W 
15N104W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 19N108.5W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 18N130W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
EXTENDS ALONG 32N122W 23N140W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO INTO THE AREA ALONG 
27N102W 21N106W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 15N138W 
WITH A TROUGH S TO 8N138W AND A TROUGH N TO 18N138W. THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS W OF THE AREA 10N143W ESTIMATED AT 
1011 MB....BUT IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. 

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDS FROM 11N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 123W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
NE IN THE RIDGE BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE ALONG A LINE 20N114W 
23N105W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 124W.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 21N93W SUPPORTING NLY UPPER 
FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
CONVECTION ENHANCED EARLIER OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND IN THE PAC 
ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...IS SPREADING S OVER THE AREA 
NE OF LINE 7N109W 1N80W. 

$$
NELSON