000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN E IS STATIONARY NEAR 15.1N 108.7W OR 
ABOUT 470 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
15/2100 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 16N111W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5   
/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE....AXIS ALONG 12N87W 16N101W 
10N120W 7N133W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N81W 
12N92W 15N105W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N109W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 
A CREST AT 15N131W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 
32N123W 23N140W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO INTO THE AREA ALONG 25N106W 
20N107W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 15N138W WITH A 
TROUGH S TO 8N138W...WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW 
DOMINATING THE DEEP TROPICS...ROUGHLY FROM 4N TO 18N BETWEEN 
135W AND 142W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS WELL DEFINED JUST W 
OF THE AREA 10N142W ESTIMATED AT 1011 MB....BUT SEEMS TO BE 
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 

DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDS FROM 11N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 122W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
NE IN THE RIDGE BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE ALONG A LINE 20N114W 
23N103W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W OF 122W.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 19N94W SUPPORTING NLY UPPER 
FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 98W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND IN THE PAC ALONG 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...IS SPREADING OVER THE AREA NE OF 
LINE 10N110W 1N80W. 

$$
NELSON