000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 108.9W OR 
ABOUT 465 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
15/1500 UTC MOVING VERY SLOWLY N AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. STRONG ELY SHEAR ALOFT IS PUSHING 
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE....AXIS ALONG 10N86W 14N98W 
10N140W. DIMINISHING MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 87W TO 
92W...ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN FROM 14N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TO STRONG NE TO E SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER PACIFIC WATERS 
MAINLY W OF 100W BETWEEN AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
17N113W...JUST W OF TO T.D. 15...FORMING A VERY BROAD RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND PACIFIC 
WATERS ALONG ROUGHLY 15N TO AS FAR W AS 135W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG T.D. 15 DESPITE THE ELY SHEAR. DRY 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING 
INTO THE AREA ALONG 130W...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD 
FRONT/SHEAR LINE AS FAR S AS 28N W OF 130W. SCATTER0METER DATA 
SHOW ENHANCED SWLY FLOW IS CONVERGING INTO T.D. 15 GENERALLY 
WITHIN 5 DEGREES S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. 
LIKEWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW IS NOTED FROM THE COAST OF 
SRN BAJA TO T.D. 15 AND HIGH PRES TO THE NW. 

LOOKING AHEAD THROGH MID WEEK...T.D. 15 IS EXPECTED INTENSIFY TO 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY LATE TODAY...AND TO CONTINUE TO MAKE 
SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NW AND N...S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA. 
MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PUSH W THROUGH NRN CENTRAL 
AMERICA...AND ENTER E PAC WATERS NEAR 85W TOMORROW. SWLY FLOW S 
OF THE ITCZ E OF 110W. WILL INCREASE AS THE T.D. INTENSIFIES AND 
THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL STALL N 
OF 28N W OF 130W. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS MODERATE TO 
LARGE SWELL N OF THE AREA SPREADING SWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
INTO THE WATERS W OF BAJA.

$$
EC