000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 108.9W OR 
ABOUT 465 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
15/0900 UTC MOVING NNW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SE SIDE OF A LARGE 
AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS BOUNDED BY 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 
109W AND 112W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE....AXIS ALONG 10N82W 17N104W 
10N112W 7N123W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NEAR 7N79W 7N86W AND FROM 10N86W TO 13N89W TO 14N93W. ISOLATED 
STRONG NEAR 12N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 12N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CLOSED OFF AS 
IT MOVES OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AN EQUALLY STRONG UPPER 
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS RIGHT ON IT TAIL ALONG 130W BUT IS 
BECOMING NEG TILTED AND IS BEGINNING TO HEAD ENE THUS WILL HAVE 
LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR REGION. BUT THE TROUGHS KEEP SENDING 
SURFACE FRONTS S OF 30N BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NW 
SWELL TO 9 FT. THE FRONTS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG 25N AFTER A 
DAY OR TWO OF ENTERING S OF 30N. A NEW FRONT IS APPROACHING THE 
NW CORNER OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK 
WITH NE TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT S OF 
20N W OF 115W. ALL EYES ARE ON NEW T.D. FIFTEEN-E NEAR 16N109W 
DRIFTING N 2 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED DURING 
THE PAST 24 HR. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOSTLY ONSHORE 
WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS STRONGEST S OF 12N BETWEEN 
100W AND 115W THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE T.D. 

LATER DAY 1 WITH A BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 30N ALL 
SYSTEMS KEEP TRACKING EWD ONLY BRUSHING BY OUR REGION..THUS 
THERES LITTLE INFLUX OF COLD AIR S OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 THE NEXT COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ESE WITH WINDS 10 
TO 15 KT AND NW SWELL TO 8 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NW TO 
N TO 20 KT EHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SOON TO BE 
T.S. FIFTEEN-E LURKING 300 NM S OF THE LOWER BAJA PENINSULA. NO 
CHANGE IN GAP WINDS NOR CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 AS THE STRONG SECOND UPPER TROUGH PLOWS INTO THE W 
COAST IT WILL LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 105W AND 120W N OF 
26N. THIS WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE MOTION OF THE T.S. 
FIFTEEN-E WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT NWD 
ALONG 109W. GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE W OF 125W. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PACIFIC RIDGE A COUPLE 
OF MILLIBARS RESULTING IN NE TRADES TO 20 KT AND WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST INCREASING TO 20 KT. FIFTEEN-E IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT DRIFTS NWD. LITTLE CHANGE TO 
GAP WINDS OR CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS. 

$$
RRG