000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN E IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 108.5W OR 
ABOUT 475 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
15/0300 UTC MOVING N AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 16N110W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5   
/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE....AXIS ALONG 11N86W 15N108W 
9N117W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 87W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
OF 14N101W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N131W WITH A GENTLE RIDGE ALONG 
26N140W 30N130W 26N116W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SE INTO 
THE NW CORNER ALONG 34N130W 27N140W. A THIN BAND OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N139W 
29N127W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S 
INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N106W 23N111W 21N120W. A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 9N137W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW 
DOMINATING THE DEEP TROPICS...FROM 1N TO 14N BETWEEN 134W AND 
142W. THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL DEFINED NEAR 10.5N139.5W ESTIMATED 
AT 1011 MB.
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 21N101W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 17N121W. THIS RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS JUST N OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS SHEARING THE 
CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 
118W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE IN THE RIDGE BUT SEEMS 
TO EVAPORATE ALONG A LINE 20N115W 24N106W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND S OF 20N W 
OF 118W.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
21N91W 15N94W 16N108W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH 
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 89W AND 
110W WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE SUNSET EXCEPT FOR A 
PERSISTENT CLUSTER NEAR 13N102W. THIS DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
SEPARATE THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FROM 
UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 95W.

$$
NELSON