000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 12N87W 14N107W 
8N120W 11N138W 10N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 92W AND WITHIN A 90 NM 
RADIUS OF 14N100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 22N...
A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE 
NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...MOVING E ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 138W N OF 28N WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS 
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 28N W OF 132W. FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THE FLOW ALOFT IS MOSTLY ZONAL WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN 
THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE AS NOTED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. 
A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO AND MOVING E ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

S OF 22N...
A RIDGE IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS 
LOCATED ALONG 18N FROM MEXICO TO NEAR 140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
HINTS AT A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF 10N138W...NEARLY STATIONARY. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS...ARE LOCATED FROM 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA COAST WESTWARD TO 110W S 
OF 13N TO THE EQUATOR. AT THE SURFACE A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 15N108.5W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 111.5W. 
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT.

$$
CAB