000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE....AXIS 11N86W 15N95W 14N107W 
9N120W TO 12N138 WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW 1012 MB CONTINUES TO 
SPIN BUT LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
8N82W 13N92W 12N104W.

A SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR 14N107W HAS ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE 
OF 1003 MB WITH CONVECTION SHEARED WITHIN 150 NM OVER W 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW HAS MOVED W 
ABOUT 8 KT OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS SO EXPECTING THAT GENERAL 
MOTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH POSSIBLY 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 24N130W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW 
TO CREST N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N132W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S 
INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N113W 25N120W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT 
IS DISSIPATING ALONG 30N112W 27N127W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 
9N138W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DEEP 
TROPICS...GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 142W.    

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 20N106W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 16N120W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS 
JUST N OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N107W AND IS SHEARING THE 
CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 
118W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE IN THE RIDGE BUT SEEMS 
TO EVAPORATE JUST S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
20N AND S OF 20N W OF 120W.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
22N89W 16N96W 15N109W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH IS 
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 89W AND 
112W...BUT IS FOR THE MOST PART WEAKENING IN COVERAGE. THIS DEEP 
TROUGH SEPARATES ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FROM 
UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH 
A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 
7S85W.

$$
NELSON