000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N85W 13N95W 8N115W 
13N136W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W.   

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 22N...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES 
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 22N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W WITH THE TROUGH 
AXIS ALONG 118W. A JET EXTENDS THROUGH 32N123W TO 30N116W AND 
THEN TURNS NE THROUGH 32N112W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE 
APPROACHING 100 KNOTS ALONG THE JET AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N128W TO BEYOND 
32N134W. FURTHER WEST BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE AREA 
ROUGHLY N OF 22N WEST OF 125W AHEAD OF A SHARP WELL-DEFINED 
TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF HAWAII. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED 
NEAR 25N137W...MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

S OF 22N...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA S OF 22N WITH 
THE AXIS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 18N. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT 
WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGEST S OF ABOUT 10N WEST OF CENTRAL AND 
SOUTH AMERICA TO 110W. ESTIMATED WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE 40 TO 45 
KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N106W AND 
MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
A 90 NM RADIUS OF 14N108W. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

$$
CAB