000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 14N92W 12N105W 
13N115W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 97W-102W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 102W-106W. SCATTERED TO STRONG WITHIN 120
NM S OF AXIS FROM 138W-141W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM
141W-145W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N133W 23N140W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 125W. THIS IS PRODUCING DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT...WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W
OF 120W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA THROUGH
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SE OF 
GUADALAJARA NEAR 20N102W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE TO 24N120W THEN SW TO 15N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO N OF 20N AND INTO THE PACIFIC N OF 20N E OF 116W.
VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W.

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
NEAR 18N103W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ANTICYCLONE COMBINED WITH THE LOW TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 107W-103W. A 1020 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N128W...WITH RIDGE FROM THE HIGH
SE TO 18N117W.

$$
DGS