000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N88W 12N100W 11N123W 11N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N120W 27N130W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS DEPICTED BY A BROKEN UP LINE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO STRONG MEDIUM PERIOD (10-14S) NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE FRONT ITSELF BECOMES DIFFUSE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N131W...PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA. AT THE SURFACE... A TROUGH MOVING W 12 KT FROM 11N-15N IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 113W-117W. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MID TO UPPER VORTICITY MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IS MAXIMIZED NEAR 27N132W. SW/WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS IS SPREADING A SMALL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE TOWARDS CENTRAL BAJA. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N110W THAT HAS RIDGING SPREADING SW OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN EMBEDDED INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING W 15-20 KT IS ALONG 117W S OF 20N PRODUCING INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY. E OF 110W... BROAD SFC TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR NE PACIFIC. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MONSOON-LIKE SW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 115W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WITHIN ASSOCIATED SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND WILL ALLOW MODERATE...SHORT PERIOD SW WIND WAVES TO MIX WITH SMALL LONGER PERIOD BACKGROUND ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA/SRN MEXICO. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N89W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IN TURN IS CONTINUING THE NW TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEREFORE...EXPECT INTERMITTENT BRIEF N SURGES...IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT...LARGE SCALE UPPER E TO NE FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF RIDGING FROM ANTICYCLONES OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE ARE A FEW SMALLER SCALE INVERTED UPPER TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. $$ AGUIRRE