000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0300 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W MOVING W 15 KT STILL IS ABLE TO BUILD 
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ IN SPITE OF ADVERSE WINDS ALOFT.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 12N87W  14N103W  11N116W 
11N130W  10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
123W TO 128W AND WITHIN 120 N OF AXIS NEAR 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ANTICYCLONE 
OVER SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 23N111W TO SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 
15N140W.  WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN 
CALIFORNIA TO 32N117W THEN TO ANOTHER WEAK UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 
25N140W.  RIDGE WOULD BLOCK FURTHER S INTRUSION OF WEAK COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING NRN BORDER OF E PAC AND WILL STALL IT N OF 25N 
EVENTUALLY DIFFUSING IT.  AIR MASS VERY DRY UNDER RIDGE AND 
ALONG TROUGH AXIS LEAVING NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE TRAPPED 
BETWEEN BOTH...ALONG 85 KT JET CORE HEADING NE TO NRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND SW CONUS.  

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SUPPLIES AMPLE 
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ITCZ FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  LACK OF 
UPLIFTING MECHANICS CURTAILS ACTIVITY ALONG ITCZ.  

MAIN FEATURE AT THE SURFACE ARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NRN 
FRINGES OF AREA.  FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ITS SRN INCURSION... 
SHIFT E TO THE MAINLAND AND DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS... 
LEAVING ONLY LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAINS UP TO 12 FT ON ITS TRAIL.  

SW CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS S OF 12N INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS 
TO 12 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES