000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0245 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W MOVING W 15 KT.  MINOR ORGANIZED 
ROTATION AND UPPER CONDITIONS BETTER THAN EXPECTED HAS 
MAINTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AXIS OF WAVE AND ITCZ. 
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED W AND UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ENHANCED 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...BUT SYSTEM BEGAN TO ENCOUNTER 
VERY HOSTILE SW WINDS ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ALL BUT EXTERMINATE  
ANY CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT.  

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 13N88W  12N97W  13N106W 
11N120W  12N133W  11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM BETWEEN 102W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N126W TO 25N140W AND CONTINUES 
WWD. VERY DRY AIR MASS NW OF AXIS.  SE OF TROUGH...RIDGE ALOFT 
EXTENDS FROM ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 17N126W TO 13N140W.  JET CORE 
75 KT TRAPPED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE ITCZ 
DEBRIS INTO AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY E PAC.  MOIST ITCZ DEBRIS ALSO 
HEADING N-NE FROM TRPCL WAVE AT 136W AND NEARBY CONVECTION.  

DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGE EXTEND TO 23N107W MAINTAINING DRYNESS 
IN REMAINING E PAC N OF 20N.   UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED AS STRONG 
SHORT WAVE DIG OFF CALIFORNIA COAST PUSHING ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT S JUST N OF AREA.  THIS IN TURN DIMINISHES NE TRADES BUT 
BRINGS IN LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELL TRAINS INTO E PAC THROUGH 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES