000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2045 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W MOVING W 15 KT.  MINOR ORGANIZED 
ROTATION AND UPPER CONDITIONS BETTER THAN EXPECTED HAS 
MAINTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AXIS OF WAVE AND ITCZ.
RIDGE ALOFT HAS EXTENDED W AND UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN HAS 
ENHANCED CONVECTION.  BUT SOON SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER VERY 
HOSTILE SW WINDS ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ALL BUT EXTERMINATE ANY 
CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT.  

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 13N89W 11N96W 13N106W 
11N120W 13N132W 11N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM  
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 101W AND 108W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 25N140W AND CONTINUES 
WWD. VERY DRY AIR MASS NW OF AXIS.  SE OF TROUGH...RIDGE ALOFT 
EXTENDS FROM ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 15N125W TO 12N140W.  JET CORE 
75 KT TRAPPED BETWEEN SYSTEMS ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE ITCZ 
DEBRIS INTO AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY E PAC.  MOIST ITCZ DEBRIS ALSO 
HEADING N-NE FROM TRPCL WAVE AT 136W AND NEARBY CONVECTION.  

DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGE EXTEND TO 22N107W MAINTAINING DRYNESS 
IN REMAINING E PAC N OF 20N.   UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED AS STRONG 
SHORT WAVE DIG OFF CALIFORNIA COAST PUSHING ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT S JUST N OF AREA.  THIS IN TURN DIMINISHES NE TRADES BUT 
BRINGS IN LARGE LONG PERIOD N SWELL TRAINS INTO E PAC THROUGH 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES