000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0245 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W MOVING W 15 KT.  CONVECTION DECREASED 
SIGNIFICANTLY LAST 12 HRS AS DRY ENVIRONMENT CURTAILS ACTIVITY. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N85W  8N95W 
13N116W 8N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W 
TO 119W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 13N93W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N130W 
TO 27N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO SUBSIDING AIR ALONG AND NW 
OF AXIS.  LARGE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS 
RIDGE W-SW TO 12N140W WITH MINOR DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 132W S 
OF 15N.  DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE W OF 125W LITERALLY SHUNTS 
ITCZ CONVECTION AT THAT POINT.  EVEN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W 
STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION GOING.

ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
FROM CARIBBEAN INTO EPAC.  

HIGH PRES 1027 MB NEAR 32N139W PROMPTS SWELL TRAINS WHICH ENTER 
E PAC ALONG N BOUNDARY AND ENCROACH AS FAR S AS 10N W OF 115W.  
HIGH PRES DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HRS SO TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS. 

MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS S OF EQUATORIAL TROUGH ALSO BUILDING 
8 FT SEAS FOR NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES