000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0845 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ. WAVE APPROACHING END OF DEEP MOISTURE 
TONGUE. MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY DRY TO THE W OF 
THE WAVE THUS LITTLE CHANCE OF SURVIVAL. IN ADDITION SW WINDS 
ALOFT INCREASE TO W OF WAVE THUS CONVECTION WOULD HAVE TROUBLE 
GETTING ORGANIZED INTO ANY SORT OF BAND.  

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N85W 7N92W 13N108W 
13N116W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 
NM OF A LINE FROM 7N79W TO 8N86W TO 6N92W TO 9N102W TO 12N103W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N103W TO 15N106W TO 13N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N113W TO 14N119W TO 13N125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 9N130W TO 9N140W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST FROM 12N89W TO 13N92W 
TO 15N94W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH JUST N OF THE AREA TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE 
SPLITTING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST OF 
THE ENERGY IS SHIFTING EWD OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A WEAKER 
SEGMENT IS HEADING SSW NEAR 33N125W. THIS WEAKER SEGMENT WILL 
HELP TO DISLODGE A VORTICITY MAX NEAR 28N121W AND MOVE IT NE. 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS LAST NIGHT IS MOVING NE 
WHILE A SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE NW OF THE AREA REMAINS 
STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A MONSOONAL TROUGH LIES SW OF 
THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N108W TO 15N105W TO 11N90W. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE HAS A 1029 MB CENTER NEAR 33N142W WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SE TO 15N110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 
KT N OF 15N W OF 125W AND NW TO N WINDS E OF 125W OF 20 KT 
ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT S OF 6N BETWEEN 84W 
AND 105W AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W ALONG WITH SLY SWELL 
TO 8 FT.

LATER DAY 1 WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS 
EWD..LITTLE IS LEFT TO CAPTURE THE VORTICITY MAX OVER OUR REGION 
THUS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR 28N118W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO 
THE NW SHOWS LITTLE INCLINATION TO MOVE EWD AND REMAINS NW OF 
THE AREA POSSIBLY A LITTLE S OF IT'S EARLIER POSITION. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY BUT 
SOMEWHAT WEAKER. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER WEAKENS SOME TO 1027 
MB BUT REMAINS STATIONARY AS DOES THE RIDGE AXIS THUS NE TRADES 
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE MOSTLY SWLY S OF 8N E OF 100W AND SE TO 
S S OF 8N W OF 110W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT MAINLY E OF 110W.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS JUST ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE FORM OF 
A SHORTWAVE MOVING TO 126W N OF 25N AND EJECTING THE VORTICITY 
MAX NE TO THE BAJA/SW AZ BORDER. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN 
STATONARY ALONG 30N BOTH E OF 110W AND W OF 145W. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 THE MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SW OF THE 
MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES 
IT'S WEAKENING TREND WITH A 1021 MB CENTER SHIFTING S TO NEAR 
28N142W..THUS NE TRADES DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT W OF 125W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE TO NWLY 5 TO 10 KT. GAP WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT 
BETWEEN 3N AND 8N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.  

$$
RRG