000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0315 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W MOVING W 15 KT AT EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE ALREADY BEGAN LOSING SOME OF SUPPORT ALOFT AND LOST 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION.  NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED. 
WAVE MOVING INTO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH DRIER 
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER W.  THUS WINDS AND CONVECTION LIKELY TO 
WEAKEN OVER NEXT 24 HRS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N78W 8N81W 10N90W 
8N99W  13N114W 9N132W 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 124W...AND E OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTEND FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX QT 
32N130W 30N123W 24N125W THEN TO CYCLONIC GYRE AT 6N124W WITH DRY 
AIR MASS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR MASS 
INTERRUPTING SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HEADING NE ON BOTH SIDES 
OF LINE FROM 20N140W TO 21N128W.  

GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED AT 19N96W EXTENDS INTO E PAC 
TO ANTICYCLONE AT 17N112W AND TO 15N126W.  RIDGE ADVECTS THE 
ONLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO ITCZ WHICH ENDS AT BOUNDARY WITH 
ABOVE MENTIONED DRY AIR.  ITCZ CONVECTIVE ADVECTED NE BY RIDGE 
FIZZLES UPON COLLISION WITH SO DRY TROUGH AXIS.   

HIGH PRES 1033 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF AREA BUILD LARGE SWELLS 
NOW ENCROACHING INTO E PAC N OF 17N.  SWELLS EXTEND TO 9N BY END 
OF FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH PRES WEAKEN AND SHIFT W AS DIMINISHING 
TRADES N OF 17N AND BRUSHING COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT 
SWELLS REMAIN.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SW ALSO BRINGING MODERATE SWELL 
S OF 17N W OF 110W BUT QUICKLY ABATE WITHIN 24 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES