000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062221
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2115 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 122W MOVING W 15 KT IS AT THE EDGE OF UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING 
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED.
HOWEVER...WAVE MOVING INTO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH DRIER 
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER W.  THUS WINDS AND CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO 
WEAKEN OVER NEXT 24 HRS.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N82W  9N90W  
7N100W  14N114W  9N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 106W TO 124W...AND E OF 90W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTEND FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX QT 
32N130W 30N124W 26N128W 26N140W.  SE CORNER OF TROUGH CONNECTS 
TO CYCLONIC GYRE AT 8N126W WITH DRY AIR MASS UNDER MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDING AIR FLOW INTERRUPTING SWATH OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE HEADING NE ON BOTH SIDES OF LINE FROM 20N140W TO 
21N128W.  

GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED AT 22N93W EXTENDS INTO E PAC 
TO ANTICYCLONE AT 17N113W AND TO 16N124W.  RIDGE ADVECTS THE 
ONLY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO ITCZ WHICH ENDS AT BOUNDARY WITH 
ABOVE MENTIONED DRY AIR.  ITCZ CONVECTIVE ADVECTED NE BY RIDGE 
FIZZLES UPON COLLISION WITH SO DRY TROUGH AXIS.   

HIGH PRES 1033 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF AREA BUILD LARGE SWELLS 
NOW ENCROACHING INTO E PAC N OF 17N.  SWELLS EXTEND TO 9N BY END 
OF FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH PRES WEAKEN AND SHIFT W AS DIMINISHING 
TRADES N OF 17N AND BRUSHING COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT 
SWELLS REMAIN.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SW ALSO BRINGING MODERATE SWELL 
S OF 17N W OF 110W BUT QUICKLY ABATE WITHIN 24 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES