000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0730 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AT THIS TIME. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE 
COMBINATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 105W AND 121W. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N80W 7N88W 14N108W 
9N125W 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N81W 7N92W 
10N102W AND 8N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 
105W AND 121W. 

STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST FROM 11N87W TO 14N92W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTER HAS MOVED SWD TONIGHT TO CA/NV AREA 
LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 110W AND 130W N OF 24N. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE DRY W OF 110W 
AND S TO THE EQUATOR. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
24N104W AND STATIONARY. MID LEVEL RIDGES ARE CENTERED E OF THE 
AREA OVER THE SRN CONUS AND NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N150W. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME AND NE 
TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT N 0F 15N AND W OF 120W. ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT WITH NLY SWELL TO 9 
FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 
20 KT BETWEEN 110W AND 130W ACCORDING TO SSMI. 

LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD 
LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SW NEAR 22N130W. 
THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS TRYING TO WORK IT'S WAY NWD 
BUT FINDING RESISTENCE FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH N TO 
NE WINDS REMAINING 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 
WILL BE 8 TO 10 FT WITH N AND NE SWELL. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT 
WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY S OF 8N E OF 
100W AND SE WINDS S OF 8N W OF 110W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGES..THUS ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO PENETRATE INTO OUR 
REGION S OF 30N. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL OCCUPY THE AREA N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE WEAKENS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THUS NE 
TRADES DECREASE N OF 15N W OF THE BAJA COAST. GAP WINDS REMAIN 
LIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME W 
OF 120W WHILE INCREASING SOME E OF 95W DUE TO LOWERING PRES OVER 
THE WRN CARIB.
  
$$
RRG