000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 8N TO 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 
THE N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 112W. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO GOOD LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ. WHILE THIS CONVERGENCE IS 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...THE WAVE IS MOVING W AWAY FROM THE AREA OF 
MAIN CONVECTION AND INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N83W 8N86W 13N108W 
9N125W 9N133W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
23N102W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED TO THE 
NW OF THIS FEATURE...ORIENTED FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 
SOUTHERN BAJA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
MEXICAN COAST FROM 17N TO 25N. S OF THIS AREA...VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES VERY BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION 
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR 10N105W...BUT NOT AT 
THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO...E OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG ELY SHEAR ON THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER PACIFIC WATERS E OF 
100W. THIS IS MINIMIZING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR OFF 
OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY 
FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.   

W OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG 
NELY WINDS PUSHING INTO THE AREA MAINLY N OF 25N...ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRES 1035 MB CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE 
AREA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST UP TO 10 FT NWLY SWELL IS 
MOVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N135W. SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND A SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER NW MEXICO IS DRAWING A THIN 
PLUME OF MID/UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM S OF HAWAII TO NEAR 
THE BAJA COAST...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS GENERALLY DRY. THE 
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 125W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS BEST. THE FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN MAIN 
FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS 
THE HIGH WEAKENS...AND THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECAY AS IT MOVES S.
  
$$
CHRISTENSEN