000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI OCT 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W FROM 6N-17N IS MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. THE WAVE IS UNDER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ...WITH SLIGHT CONFLUENT FLOW RESULTING IN ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY SINKING AIR JUST TO ITS NE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N114W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 12.5N-14N. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N80W 11N110W 8N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-99W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N123W...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH 27.5N129W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 26N132W TO BEYOND THE REGION AT 25N140W. CYCLONIC FLOW NW OF THE TROUGH THEN BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC W OF 129W IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N148W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS GIVING WAY TO NARROW SWATHS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRESSING SWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN NLY FLOW N OF 27N. A 240 NM WIDE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 19N140W EASTWARD TO 20N132W. THESE CLOUDS DENOTE A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND IS ADVECTING IN THESE HIGH CLOUDS. THE JET STREAM BRANCH THEN EXTENDS NE THROUGH 26.5N120W NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA. AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX OF 60 KT WINDS IS LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM 25N-28N TO THE E OF 123W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N130W SSW TO 17N130W. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR 15N134W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 122W. ONLY MOISTURE AREA SEEN IS THAT OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE WHERE ITCZ MOSITURE HAS BEEN TAPPED NWD BY THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG 24N130W 17N130W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 117W-120W. A NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 9N129W...WHILE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE NEAR 8N118W. MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND TO THE S AND SW OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF 120W. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN BOTH CIRCULATION CENTERS BETWEEN 117W-121W LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SINKING AIR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 117W. E OF 110W... A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL TEXAS LIFTING QUICKLY NEWD HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 27N106W SW TO W OF 110W AT 20N. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NW OF LINE 17N110W TO THE NW PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NW TO FAR NW MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 4 DEG IN DIAMETER...MOVING NW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN WITHIN AND NE OF THIS CIRCULATION. RATHER PRONOUNCED CONFLUENT FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN BOTH THE ANTICYCLONE AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE W OF THE MEXICAN COAST TO 110W AND FROM 12N-18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ...DECREASING SOME IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...EXTENDS FROM 13N-24N E OF 108W TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA SW TO 10N95W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 12N AND E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SEWD THROUGH 32N135W 26N26.5W TO 22N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 122W. $$ AGUIRRE