000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W N OF 5N MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 
WAVE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N78W 10N93W 13N106W 
10N124W 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N82W 6N90W 
10N97W AND 7N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
15N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N111W TO 13N112W TO 14N114W. 
ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 12N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 10N117W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AT MID LEVELS TONIGHT RIDGE CENTERS ARE E AND NW OF THE AREA. IN 
BETWEEN IS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ALONG 120W THAT HAS PENETRATED 
S TO 28N. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 
22N100W MOVING W 10 KT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY 
DRY MID ATMOSPHERE FROM BAJA SW TO 10N140W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A WEAK TRPL WAVE WAS ALONG 110W MOVING W 12 KT. 
CONVECTION IS SCATTERED WITH NO ORGANIZATION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
EXTENDS SE TO 15N110W. NE TRADES TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING TONIGHT W 
OF 130W. A NEW SURGE OF NLY WINDS TO 20 KT WITH INCREASING NLY 
SWELL IS HEADING S N OF 27N E OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT BUT WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY. GAP 
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY OF 20 KT WINDS S OF 
10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 
5N S TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT 
FROM SSMI. 

LATER DAY 1 A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PORTION 
OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WILL LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THE EMBEDDED LOW CENTER AT MID LEVELS 
OVER SRN MEXICO WILL DRIFT NW TO W CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 NW WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER BAJA COAST 
TO 20 KT WITH NWLY SWELL TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

FOR DAY 2 A WEAK SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE 
MAIN TROUGH AND DRIFTS S TO NEAR 22N130W. THE MAIN TROUGH 
CONTINUES EWD TO 115W. THIS ALLOWS THE EMBEDDED LOW OVER SRN 
MEXICO TO LIFT NWD TO NRN MEXICO.  ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME WITH NE TRADES OF 20 KT W OF 
130W. NW AND NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL BE 20 KT WITH 
NWLY SWELL TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW E OF 120W 
AND S TO SE W OF 120W. 
 
$$
RRG