000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041019
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W N OF 5N MOVING W 12 KT.  UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF WAVE AXIS FROM 9N TO 12N.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N85W  10N100W 
11N110W  8N126W  8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 96W TO 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDSFROM 32N116W 18N140W.  DOWNSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED AT 18N122W HELPS TROUGH IN KEEPING 
ENTIRE E PAC N OF 15N W OF 110W VERY DRY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDING AIR MASS.  ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO 
COMBINES WITH CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
CAUSE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER 
NARROW MOISTURE PLUME ALONG MEXICO PAC COAST FROM 100W TO 110W.  
ANOTHER NARROW MOISTURE SWATH ALONG ITCZ FROM 8N-12N E OF 118W 
SUPPORTED BY CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER CUBA.  STRONG 
FLOW ALOFT OVER E PAC NOR CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION.    

AT THE SURFACE...REMNANTS OF JULIETTE DISSIPATING NEAR 23N114W.
COLD FRONT ORIENTED E-W JUST N OF 30N CAUSING LONG PERIOD SWELLS 
TO ENCROACH INTO E PAC N OF 25N W OF 115W LASTING THROUGH ENTIRE 
PERIOD. 
  
$$
WALLY BARNES