000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104.5W N OF 5N MOVING W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N 
TO 13N.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 11N85W 12N105W 
8N123W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 7N TO 
15N E OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM 
32N114W 18N140W. SEVERAL EMBEDDED CYCLONES ARE NOTED WITHIN THE 
BROAD TROUGH...NEAR 32N119W...28N123W AND 23N137W. A SMALL 
MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED ALONG 13N140W 18N135W...OTHERWISE THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY W OF A LINE FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 120W...AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSES ITCZ CONVECTION W 
OF 118W.
   
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 27N103W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW ALONG 18N120W 16N135W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST...AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE AREA 
ALONG 22N93W TO 12N103W. TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 7N E OF 90W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...AND 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CENTRAL AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH...IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 108W.  DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED S 
OF 7N E OF 115W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA 
ALONG 32N140W 15N120W. THE REMNANTS OF JULIETTE ARE DISSIPATING 
NEAR 24N115W. 
  
$$
NELSON