000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 10N ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ. NO ORGANIZATION EXPECTED 
ALTHOUGH WAVE IS ENTERING NARROW AREA OF FAVORABLE E WINDS ALOFT.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N82W 10N104W 9N115W  
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
107W. 

...DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ E 
OF 105W-110W. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INDICATES THE REGION 
IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS THAT CAN SPIN UP 
INTO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. THEREFORE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
GENESIS NEXT 3-4 DAYS IS VERY LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER 
MEXICO NEAR 27N104W IS PRODUCING EAST WINDS ALOFT E OF 120W. WINDS 
ARE BROADLY DIVERGENT OVER THE ITCZ AXIS ALLOWING SOME CONVECTION TO 
FLARE UP AND THEN DIE OUT IN A DIURNAL CYCLE. THE ITCZ LOCATION AND 
THE INTENSITY OF ITS CONVECTION SHOULD VARY ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES.

STRONG RIDGING EXTENDS WELL INTO THE TROPICS W OF 120W. A 1036 MB 
SURFACE HIGH NW OF AREA AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE 
TROUGH AT THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
SUBSIDENCE TO DOMINATE THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. BUT 
WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT...TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT... 
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS.

$$
MUNDELL