000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ.  NO 
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED ALTHOUGH UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ENTIRELY 
UNFAVORABLE SINCE WAVE IS ENTERING AREA OF ADVERSE WINDS ALOFT. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG  10N84W  11N100W  
9N115W  12N135W  12N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 97W TO 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 28N126W HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 
SECOND VORTEX AT 25N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS W OF 120W DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH AND 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 17N121W.  

SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO BRINGS STRONG AND DRY 
NE WINDS N OF 18N E OF 120W MAINTAINING MOISTURE OVER MAINLAND 
MEXICO.  SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN BOTH ANTICYCLONES KEEP 
WEAK WINDS OVER TROPICAL WAVE AT 101W...BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT 
OF AREA EXPOSING WAVE TO STRONGER E-NE WINDS ALOFT. 

TROPICAL MOISTURE SWATH ENTERS E PAC FROM CARIBBEAN BASIN FORCED 
BY ATLC RIDGE CENTERED OVER HAITI.  AVAILABLE WATER NOT GETTING 
SIGNIFICANT UPWARD FORCING DUE TO RIDGING CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN 
PAC CORNER. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE FLOW DUE TO LOW PRES OVER ERN GULF OF 
MEXICO FORCES WINDS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DRIFT W 
AND CUT OFF NRN FLOW WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS. 

HIGH PRES 1035 MB WELL NW OF AREA CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG 
TRADES AND SWELL ENCROACHING INTO E PAC N OF 4N W OF 130W.  
MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL MODERATE WINDS AND 8 FT SWELLS S OF 
10N E OF 100W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES