000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WHILE THE 
WAVE REMAINS OBSCURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT SCATTERED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE WAVE TO THE N OF THE ITCZ...FROM 
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 139W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N86W 11N91W 
10N100W 11N106W 9N113W 13N135W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTH 
CENTRAL MEXICO...E OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OVER GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
NLY FLOW IN BETWEEN CONTINUES TO DELIVER DRY AND STABLE 
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND OVER PACIFIC 
WATERS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SRN 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 100W. E OF THIS...WLY UPPER 
SHEAR RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COAST. MEANWHILE...STRONG NELY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
DEPICTED BY EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
MMIT...IXTEPEC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS 
LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND SHIFT TO THE W...SHUNTING THE 
STRONG WINDS TO THE W.

W OF 110W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N123W 25N140W. MID 
LEVELS HAVE DRY AND STABLE AIR FLOWING FROM THE NW INTO THE 
AREA...KEEPING CONVECTION VERY LIMITED. AT THE SURFACE...NWLY 
SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT IN PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. FRESH SELY FLOW IS 
EVIDENT IN SHIP REPORTS S OF THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. 
CURRENT TRENDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN