000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W/99W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. THERE IS 
LITTLE INDICATION OF THIS WAVE. CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AND NOT 
ORGANIZED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM 
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 13N. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION 
IS ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH NO ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 7N80W 11N97W 10N105W 
9N120W 12N135W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 13N EAST OF 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL 
MEXICO DOMINATES CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EPAC EAST OF 120W. THIS 
FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE 
AREA MAINLY NORTH OF 10N. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
ALSO SEEN OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE NW 
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N128W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N140W. NELY 
FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES IS BRINGING DRIER AND 
MORE STABLE AIR INTO AREA W OF 120W...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR 
THE MOST PART. FRESH NLY FLOW IS EVIDENT IN LAND BASED SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE RESULT OF HIGHER 
DENSITY AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND OF 20 KT ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS 
EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OCTOBER MARKS THE BEGINNING OF 
THE TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENTS. CURRENTLY...N TO NE WIND OF 20 TO 
25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN EARLIER 
QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...VIS SAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS STREAMERS OR CLOUD LINES SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE 
OF NLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS. IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF 
OAXACA REPORTED NLY SUSTAINED WINDS 0F 22 KT THIS MORNING. THIS 
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE REMNANTS 
OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE IS NEAR 24N116W AT 
02/1200 UTC. THE CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED ON VIS SAT IMAGERY 
AND CONSISTS OF MAINLY LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
MAINLY NORTH OF CENTER. 

$$
GR