000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE NEAR 23.4N 116W AT 0730 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS TO 25 
KT. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM ONLY LOW CLOUDINESS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. THERE IS LITTLE 
INDICATION OF THIS WAVE. CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AND NOT ORGANIZED. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPILLING SWD THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC TO 14N WHICH WILL DEMINISH THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE 
WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR DEVELOPMENT.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 136W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION 
IS ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH NO ORGANIZATION. 

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N80W 10N97W 18N115W 
12N123W 11N135W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 7N80W TO 8N85W TO 9N92W TO 9N97W TO 9N108W. OTHER ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FORM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 89W AND 110W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 12N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SQUEEZE PLAY CONTINUES TONIGHT AS A DETACHED MID LEVEL 
TROUGH ALONG 120W TRIES IN VAIN TO ESCAPE NWD BUT NO SUITERS IN 
THE FORM OF SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES SEEM INTERESTED. TWO 
LARGE
MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN STATIONARY TONIGHT. ONE OVER MEXICO AND 
THE OTHER NW OF THE REGION NEAR 35N145W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
OLD T.D. JULIETTE SUCCUMBED TO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND FIZZLED 
OUT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 
23.4N115.8W AT 0600 UTC DRIFTING SLOWLY NNW WITH NO CONVECTION. 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME AND NE TRADES HAVE 
INCREASED IN ARIAL COVERAGE IF NOT STRENGTH AND ARE GENERALLY N 
OF 13N AND W OF 120W AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE NLY 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI WITH SEAS 6 TO 
8 FT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SSMI 
SHOWS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE COAST. NO PASS 
FROM QUIKSCAT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT 
FROM SSMI S OF 8N E OF 125W AND S OF 10N W OF 128W. 

LATER DAY 1 ACCORDING TO THE GSF MODEL THE WESTERIES ARE CONTENT 
TO LEAVE THE HAPLESS MID LEVEL TROUGH RIGHT WHERE IT IS ALONG 
120W STUCK BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGES. THERE ARE 
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS WEAKENING WHILE 
THE ONE NW OF THE AREA IS STRENGTHENING. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 A LOW LEVEL CENTER..THE REMNANT OF JULIETTE WILL CONTINUE 
DRIFTING NWD OFF THE SW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH 
DIMINISHING WINDS TO 20 KT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS BUT 
DOES SO NW OF ARE REGION THUS WINDS S OF 30N AND W OF 120W 
CHANGE LITTLE REMAINING NE 15 KT POSSIBLY TO 20 KT BETWEEN 15N 
AND 20N W OF 135W. WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC BEGIN TO DECREASE 
AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. OTHER GAP 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY S 
OF 8N E OF 95W AND S OF 6N W OF 100W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.

FOR DAY 2 THERES SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS MODEL THAT THE OLD 
MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE EXITING NWD ALONG 120W THANKS TO THE 
RIDGE OVER MEXICO POSITIONING ITSELF OVER SRN BAJA. THIS WILL 
ALLOW A EXIT ROUTE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE RIDGE WHICH THE 
TROUGH IS HAPPY TO TAKE TO ESCAPE THE VISE GRIP THE TWO RIDGE 
CENTERS HAVE HAD ON IT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 
2 THE OVERALL PATTERN QUIETS DOWN WITH THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 
REMAINING NW OF THE REGION BUT STILL EXTENDING SE TO 20N120W 
THUS NE TRADES MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT N OF 12N W OF 120W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST MOSTLY LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS ALSO LIGHT. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 8N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W 
WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. 

$$
RRG