000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0432 UTC TUE OCT 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 115.8W AT 02 OCT 
0300 UTC MOVING NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
JULIETTE IS EXPERIENCING STRONG SLY SHEAR AND THE CONVECTION HAS 
MOSTLY DISSIPATED. JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A REMNANT 
LOW EARLY TUE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS BEING ENHANCED BY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 135W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WEAK 
CYCLONIC ROTATION NOTED WHERE THE WAVE INTERSECTS THE ITCZ. NO 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N86W 11N96W 9N99W 
14N111W 15N118W 20N125W 9N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

EAST OF 120W...
MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE IS A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG 
SHEAR ACROSS THE ITCZ W OF 95W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED E OF 
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NELY FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS BRINGING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR 
INTO AREA ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 95W...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR 
THE MOST PART. FRESH NLY FLOW IS EVIDENT IN LAND BASED SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE RESULT OF HIGHER 
DENSITY AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

W OF 120W...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 16N130W...BRINGING DRY AND 
STABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
IS EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN