000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011543 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1632 UTC MON OCT 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 115.4W AT 01/1500 
UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS 
TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF 
JULIETTE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR 
NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING FROM 21N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A 
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF JULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. SMALL AREA OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 13N92W OTHERWISE NO OTHER CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. 

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W MOVING W 15 KT. NO CONVECTION 
NOTED.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N80W 11N92W 
13N110W 13N120W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 140 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

EAST OF 120W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER NORTH MEXICO NEAR 
28N105W DOMINATES MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 120W 
PRODUCING STRONG ELY FLOW BETWEEN 10N TO 20N. SLY FLOW ON 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH ARE KEEPING THE CONVECTION 
SHEARED FROM JULIETTE'S CENTER. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS SEEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA.  

W OF 120W...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N124W TO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW 
SITUATED NEAR 26N142W. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR...RESULTING IN 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY WEST OF 120W 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION WHERE THERE IS 
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH/LOW. 

AT THE SURFACE...T.S. JULIETTE IS NEAR 21N115W MOVING NW AT 8 
KT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH NE 
TRADES TO 20 KT CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 130W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY AT 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO 
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS 
MODEL FOR 06Z. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME 
INDICATION OF WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SLY WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY S OF 9N W OF 130W. STABLE LOW-LEVEL 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N WEST OF 120W. 
FARTHER S...THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE E OF 120W OTHERWISE NO 
OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FOUND W OF 120W DUE TO THE PRESENCE 
OF DRY AIR ALOFT.  

$$
GR