000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 1 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 114.8W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JULIETTE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. THE CENTER IS SURROUNDED WITH MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ON THE S AND SE SIDE. SHE IS MOVING NNW AROUND THE EDGE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND REMAINS IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AIR..THOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR LIES JUST TO THE W SOME 300 NM W OF CENTER ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 7N MOVING W 10 KT. ONE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 12N88W AND AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 14N96W OTHERWISE NO OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 132W MOVING W 15 KT. NO CONVECTION NOTED. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N80W 11N92W 18N106W 14N116W 10N125W 10N133W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N110W TO 17N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N118W AND 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST AT 6N78W AND 7N78W..ALSO NEAR 12N88W AND 14N96W. ...DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW SURGE DRIVING S ALONG 130W N OF THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. A WEAK PORTION OF THE OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGS OVER OUR REGION S OF 30N ALONG 124W AND MAY GET PICKED UP BY THIS NEW SURGE. THIS OLD TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND HAS BEEN STATIONARY. A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE E OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT EXTENDS W TO 116W AND IS HOLDING THE OLD TROUGH AT BAY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.S. JULIETTE NEAR 20N115W IS MOVING NW AT 9 KT IS A SMALL SYSTEM AS TRPL CYCLONES GO BUT IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH HAS BEEN SPREADING N OVER BAJA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LARGE ANTICYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM IS HELPING WITH THE OUTFLOW THE STORM NEEDS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY AT 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC FROM SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY S OF 8N EXCEPT BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WHERE THEY EXTEND N TO 15N THANKS TO JULIETTE. LATER DAY 1 THE OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 124W CONTINUES TO GET SQUEEZED BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS TRYING TO EXIT THE REGION WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ALONG 120W MOVING INLAND OVER CA/NV. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 T.S. JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NNW AND WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR W OF THE BAJA COAST. SOME POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SWLY SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR TEHUANTEPEC WHERE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF IS PUSHING AIR S THROUGH THE ISMUS. GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS OF 20 KT. OTHERWISE CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONFINED TO S OF 8N ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LONG PERIOD SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. FOR DAY 2 GFS MODEL SHOWS OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH STUCK BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES AND BASICALLY LEFT BEHIND BY ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE TO THE NW STRENGTHENING SOME BUT REMAINING NW OF OUR REGION. THE ERN RIDGE SINKS SW OVER MEXICO DAY 2 AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION NEAR 24N116W WITH WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SW BAJA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM. THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME BUT MAINLY NW OF OUR REGION THUS NE TRADES TO 20 KT REMAIN MAINLY W OF 130W BUT NLY WINDS TO 20 KT MOVE S TO 27N E OF 130W TO 120W. GFS STILL SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT SPILLING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE S OF 9N E OF 100W AS PRES LOWERS ALONG 10N..OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AREA S OF 8N W OF 100W. $$ RRG