000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 114.7W AT 01/0300 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/ 
WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A PRONOUNCED MID  
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE CIRCULATION AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER MEXICO. 
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 7N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 131W MOVING W 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 10N85W 10N96W 15N104W 14N115W 
10N121W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
27N124W THROUGH 20N127W TO 13N133W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A 70-75 KT JET IS 
LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N122W TO N CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 105W IS EASTERLY AND 
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS JULIETTE ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE 
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO. SATELLITE CLOUD 
DRIFT WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL