000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 113.0W AT 30/1500 
UTC IS MOVING NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG 
CONVECTION LIES MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER 
WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS OF 18.2N113.8W. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED 
NORTHWARD BY A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST 
OF THE CIRCULATION AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER MEXICO. THE STORM IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 6N ACROSS BELIZE IS MOVING W 10 TO 
15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION OR ORGANIZATION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W FROM 4N TO 15N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 7N77W 10N92W 14N110W 
9N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 
75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 
116W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 115W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 
115W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 27N123W THROUGH 20N127W TO 12N132W. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FEATURE. A JET LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS 
LOCATED FROM 18N122W INTO THE N CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. 

E OF 115W...
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 105W IS EASTERLY AND 
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS JULIETTE ON THE W SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO. 
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS ARE IN THE 25 
TO 35 KNOT RANGE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 
HOURS.

$$
CAB