000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE NEAR 16.9N 112.1W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 29 
MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO
45 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST BETWEEN 87W
AND 90W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION 
IS NOTED AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO A REGION UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 10N85W 13N100W 13N115W 10N125W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W 
AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE ELY SHEAR OVER E PACIFIC WATERS S OF 18N. WEAK 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE SHEAR ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ITCZ 
CONVECTION E OF 100W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE COMBINED WITH FRESH SWLY WINDS S OF THE ITCZ W OF 100W 
ARE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF T.S. JULIETTE IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNDAY HOWEVER AS IT 
MOVES INTO A REGION OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WITH INCREASING 
SHEAR ALOFT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE MODERATE 
TO FRESH NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGHER DENSITY LOW LEVEL AIR FUNNELS OUT OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH NLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 22N132W AND AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS SITUATED W OF THIS TROUGH. NWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO 
SYSTEMS IS BRINGING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE REGION... 
SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA IS MOVING GRADUALLY SE. TRADE FLOW WILL 
INCREASE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AND T.S. JULIETTE.
$$

MUNDELL